Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61704dc6d729e2e1859bdb7902b0dd661da29a84982d2999c849219d58e8067d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof LGD Gaming, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0d8…8eafbacked LGD Gaming | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed L1ga Team | 46c | 2,600$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.27 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed LGD Gaming | 44c | 1,235$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.34 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed L1ga Team | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.99 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed L1ga Team | 43c | 1,191$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.48 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked L1ga Team | 34c | 916.5$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.89 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed L1ga Team | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.35 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce6…79eebacked LGD Gaming | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked LGD Gaming | 54c | 530$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.2 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0478…37c3backed LGD Gaming | 60c | 521.71$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed L1ga Team | 34c | 429.4$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.4 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed LGD Gaming | 53c | 424.6$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.04 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed LGD Gaming | 54c | 374.07$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed L1ga Team | 70c | 304.45$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.41 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed LGD Gaming | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked LGD Gaming | 54c | 180$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed LGD Gaming | 54c | 168.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed L1ga Team | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked L1ga Team | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed L1ga Team | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3954…22d9backed LGD Gaming | 55c | 126.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked LGD Gaming | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked LGD Gaming | 46c | 107.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked L1ga Team | 65c | 103.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed LGD Gaming | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked LGD Gaming | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…4b02backed L1ga Team | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed LGD Gaming | 54c | 72.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked LGD Gaming | 42c | 72.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed LGD Gaming | 54c | 72.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked LGD Gaming | 36c | 68.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed LGD Gaming | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed LGD Gaming | 32c | 34.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked L1ga Team | 34c | 31.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed LGD Gaming | 56c | 29.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked LGD Gaming | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed LGD Gaming | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed L1ga Team | 45c | 22.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed L1ga Team | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group DLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.