Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x617e52a626ac62326ddaf57e1ff25b3d5dea30fa1830e3c9dfc26df4668cfc80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0591…89b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,178$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 521.37$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.12 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 55c | 490.43$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.75 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked No | 61c | 445.64$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…af5fbacked No | 79c | 442.86$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…89babacked No | 48c | 255.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 39c | 225.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…36d4backed No | 68c | 218.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 208.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c2…33f3backed Yes | 25c | 184$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 140.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 43c | 137.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 129.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…ab1bbacked No | 44c | 111.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 35c | 100.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 12c | 94.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 24c | 82.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…0357backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 67.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6e…b6eebacked Yes | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes | 31c | 51.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 53c | 46.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 41.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 29c | 35.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 40c | 35.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 40c | 35.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 53c | 34.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 39c | 33.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 44c | 25.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…bc39backed Yes | 53c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 68c | 15.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.