NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Jets: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6180a26a0b92eabda9e41864289ae71bb367d672d66e764e10cd61c9788b0ece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 14,880$7,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,364.45 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 50c | 12,000$6,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,989.99 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 11,500$5,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,830 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 7,813$4,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,053.19 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 46c | 6,522$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 48c | 3,156$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.12 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 50c | 2,952$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.97 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 50c | 2,018$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.74 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Over | 50c | 1,649$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Under | 50c | 1,355$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 1,182$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.4 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 54c | 278.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…70a4backed Under | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 229.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…279ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Jets: O/U 47.5this page
- Cowboys vs. JetsCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Jets: O/U 42.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Jets: O/U 44.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Jets: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Jets (-3.5)Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.