NFL · resolved market

Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eefcf6e73888c0f19870f8723554ecd1ab32e2e53f8990abb90f33911217f9a

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cowboysof Cowboys, Jets
Resolved: Oct 5, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,254 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0a77…9d74backed Cowboys	46c	7,511$3,448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,063.05	373	50.9%190 W · 183 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Jets	55c	7,000$3,849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,849.2	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Jets	54c	5,572$2,984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,983.76	206	61.2%126 W · 80 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Cowboys	44c	3,000$1,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,680	293	56%164 W · 129 L	+14.0wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Jets	56c	2,000$1,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,120	89	51.7%46 W · 43 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Cowboys	43c	1,139$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$649.04	175	48%84 W · 91 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cowboys	45c	1,071$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$592	418	51.9%217 W · 201 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x156f…6887backed Jets	58c	980$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.36	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys	42c	700$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Cowboys	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	163	51.5%84 W · 79 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Cowboys	49c	399.99$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.99	266	48.9%130 W · 136 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Jets	51c	365.02$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.16	55	60%33 W · 22 L	+4.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a25…c24dbacked Cowboys	49c	309.83$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.01	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e4…0478backed Cowboys	50c	214.66$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.33	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Cowboys	45c	200$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	104	53.8%56 W · 48 L	+8.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Jets	51c	199.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Jets	58c	121$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.18	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Jets	57c	110$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.7	245	51%125 W · 120 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Jets	58c	100$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	174	59.2%103 W · 71 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a1…d6e6backed Cowboys	42c	100$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-26%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e46…7ae5backed Cowboys	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Jets	58c	90$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x367f…0545backed Cowboys	50c	82$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Cowboys	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	175	47.4%83 W · 92 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Cowboys	49c	77.55$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.55	127	55.1%70 W · 57 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Jets	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Cowboys	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	419	47.3%198 W · 221 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa492…a079backed Jets	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6dc…8c92backed Jets	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf396…36babacked Cowboys	50c	47.86$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5318…2a91backed Cowboys	43c	46.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.51	105	49.5%52 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…7b6ebacked Jets	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	170	60.6%103 W · 67 L	+12.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ee0…21f8backed Cowboys	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+4.0wins	+0.31per pick	54cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Cowboys	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	177	41.8%74 W · 103 L	-10.8wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Jets	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	40.7%22 W · 32 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a45…36dcbacked Jets	53c	33.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfca9…cb3dbacked Jets	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe18c…37c1backed Cowboys	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event