NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf04faebbb49ca6dc0a42e3824f188a21f37112b7e43dae531c1cfb4570d18fab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cowboysof Cowboys, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jets | 58c | 2,818$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.38 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Cowboys | 40c | 2,488$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.68 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Jets | 59c | 492.68$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.68 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Cowboys | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Cowboys | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets | 58c | 214$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.28 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Cowboys | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Cowboys | 47c | 68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…877cbacked Jets | 56c | 60.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Jets | 52c | 54.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Cowboys | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Jets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cowboys | 47c | 39.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Cowboys | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b38…a660backed Jets | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Cowboys | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)this page
- Cowboys vs. JetsCowboys won
- Cowboys vs. Jets: O/U 42.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Jets: O/U 44.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Jets: O/U 47.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Jets: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Cowboys won
- Spread: Jets (-3.5)Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.