Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6180ab1859be97c51d34f98e97bff004f3a064aa536598cd1a591de5d2dc7c97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estar Backsof Estar Backs, ALIS VENTORUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x568c…fbd0backed ALIS VENTORUS | 66c | 5,183$3,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 59c | 2,234$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.5 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Estar Backs | 34c | 1,729$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.96 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Estar Backs | 32c | 1,664$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.6 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ALIS VENTORUS | 56c | 1,432$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.19 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Estar Backs | 34c | 1,427$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.8 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Estar Backs | 35c | 863.93$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.41 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Estar Backs | 33c | 704.35$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.21 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Estar Backs | 34c | 667.07$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.26 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed ALIS VENTORUS | 57c | 607.03$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.93 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Estar Backs | 35c | 542.62$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.47 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Estar Backs | 37c | 525.12$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.26 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Estar Backs | 34c | 432.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.24 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785d…4e88backed Estar Backs | 57c | 419.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.57 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 67c | 356.89$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed ALIS VENTORUS | 15c | 225.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed ALIS VENTORUS | 41c | 178.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed ALIS VENTORUS | 65c | 166.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed ALIS VENTORUS | 67c | 164.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Estar Backs | 45c | 135.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Estar Backs | 34c | 131.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…1761backed Estar Backs | 34c | 107.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Estar Backs | 43c | 85.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed ALIS VENTORUS | 64c | 64.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Estar Backs | 36c | 61.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…8a59backed Estar Backs | 35c | 54.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked ALIS VENTORUS | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Estar Backs | 37c | 41.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 279 | 52.3%146 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Estar Backs | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Estar Backs | 40c | 33.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed ALIS VENTORUS | 64c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group BEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 1 WinnerALIS VENTORUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.