Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x085ce048e813da44b482974ebaada5b74091cb0aa47622add217f0114049f4d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estar Backsof Estar Backs, ALIS VENTORUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x568c…fbd0backed ALIS VENTORUS | 60c | 2,124$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked ALIS VENTORUS | 64c | 1,060$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.97 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf7…6d62backed Estar Backs | 53c | 875.35$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.87 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Estar Backs | 64c | 725.26$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.6 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Estar Backs | 54c | 665.91$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.05 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed ALIS VENTORUS | 56c | 629.1$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.21 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785d…4e88backed Estar Backs | 44c | 586.32$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.34 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ALIS VENTORUS | 61c | 509.81$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.1 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Estar Backs | 65c | 503.07$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.35 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Estar Backs | 43c | 499.1$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.41 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed ALIS VENTORUS | 53c | 458.15$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.95 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Estar Backs | 78c | 441.84$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Estar Backs | 57c | 424.55$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.3 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…47abbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 64c | 412.53$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Estar Backs | 37c | 391.57$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.82 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed ALIS VENTORUS | 47c | 371.23$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.42 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…8313backed Estar Backs | 44c | 330.95$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.39 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Estar Backs | 50c | 330.44$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.71 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…d46dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 66c | 311.65$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.59 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Estar Backs | 49c | 311.64$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed ALIS VENTORUS | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Estar Backs | 44c | 282.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.02 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Estar Backs | 42c | 266.19$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.39 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Estar Backs | 40c | 241.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 14c | 213.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d99…bf7fbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Estar Backs | 45c | 166.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 42c | 153.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked ALIS VENTORUS | 59c | 148.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Estar Backs | 34c | 144.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed ALIS VENTORUS | 18c | 143.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Estar Backs | 58c | 140.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…59eabacked ALIS VENTORUS | 22c | 119.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…9e46backed ALIS VENTORUS | 24c | 119.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Estar Backs | 34c | 112.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…d88cbacked Estar Backs | 79c | 107.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Estar Backs | 42c | 105.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 22c | 101$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…838bbacked Estar Backs | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Estar Backs | 42c | 92.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Estar Backs | 71c | 89.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed ALIS VENTORUS | 58c | 84.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed ALIS VENTORUS | 28c | 70.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6af2…8bd8backed Estar Backs | 40c | 64.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Estar Backs | 55c | 61.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…6358backed ALIS VENTORUS | 62c | 58.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…0fa8backed Estar Backs | 59c | 56.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed ALIS VENTORUS | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked ALIS VENTORUS | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a47…5e77backed Estar Backs | 41c | 49.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…1a19backed ALIS VENTORUS | 62c | 48.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Estar Backs | 24c | 42.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 30c | 40.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…748dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Estar Backs | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Estar Backs | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Estar Backs | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed ALIS VENTORUS | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed ALIS VENTORUS | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 1 WinnerALIS VENTORUS won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 2 WinnerEstar Backs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.