Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x800b4d946de2d3039251011d44f7816eed57c71a734123ade112876e11e63af0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ALIS VENTORUSof Estar Backs, ALIS VENTORUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x568c…fbd0backed ALIS VENTORUS | 61c | 3,423$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Estar Backs | 42c | 1,423$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.27 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed ALIS VENTORUS | 55c | 909.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.22 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Estar Backs | 34c | 820.62$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.01 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Estar Backs | 39c | 741.24$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.3 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Estar Backs | 8c | 629.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Estar Backs | 6c | 607.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Estar Backs | 37c | 519.8$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.32 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Estar Backs | 11c | 467$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Estar Backs | 8c | 450$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 344.88$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.06 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Estar Backs | 58c | 304.39$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.55 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8832…1fc4backed Estar Backs | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed ALIS VENTORUS | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Estar Backs | 46c | 230$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Estar Backs | 18c | 156.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed ALIS VENTORUS | 60c | 99.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Estar Backs | 36c | 96.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Estar Backs | 42c | 91.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Estar Backs | 58c | 73.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Estar Backs | 44c | 63.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 58c | 55.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Estar Backs | 54c | 54.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked ALIS VENTORUS | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Estar Backs | 64c | 51.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Estar Backs | 48c | 46.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Estar Backs | 68c | 24.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Estar Backs | 44c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group BEstar Backs won
- Dota 2: Estar Backs vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 2 WinnerEstar Backs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.