NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61c6611edc3aa1c98f35d58689457038cde60c283fbe3e4c547eaecbffb40553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 2,135$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 1,262$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.16 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 61c | 1,203$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.17 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 1,168$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 937$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.39 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 50c | 402$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 50c | 400$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 352$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.44 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…2b2abacked Under | 47c | 198.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 145$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 56c | 105.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 105.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 45c | 46.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 56c | 30.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 55c | 30.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Grizzlies vs. SpursSpurs won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.