NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe03925183821f58715412305c57a861bfdd0582de3aab3f0f353a6c16ba0902
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 61c | 4,824$2,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.19 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 2,938$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Under | 49c | 1,457$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 255 | 54.1%138 W · 117 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…860cbacked Under | 51c | 1,300$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98a9…676ebacked Over | 49c | 1,300$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 52c | 1,005$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.39 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 906$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.88 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 39c | 849.83$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.43 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 816.05$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.35 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 784.41$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 655.61$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.87 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…6275backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 50cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 52c | 600$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 580$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 48c | 529.17$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.17 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 525.95$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.75 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Over | 52c | 423.08$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.08 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0c…cc5bbacked Under | 48c | 391.67$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 48c | 289.83$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.71 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 261$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.33 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 256$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 49c | 182$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 39c | 98.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 77.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 39c | 54.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 54c | 33.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Over | 49c | 31.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Under | 60c | 25.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 23.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 48c | 22.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Grizzlies vs. SpursSpurs won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.