Lol · resolved market
LoL: White Dragons vs Tung Tung Bogi - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61e68a1ffb2764867b9f64f0b057022988755e5930f38f9d2fd5a543c2b88bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- White Dragonsof White Dragons, Tung Tung Bogi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tung Tung Bogi | 13c | 624.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 2,088 | 30.6%639 W · 1,449 L | -176.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tung Tung Bogi | 56c | 374.79$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.05 | 1,893 | 39.8%754 W · 1,139 L | -68.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…8709backed White Dragons | 42c | 347$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.57 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…0d81backed Tung Tung Bogi | 40c | 231.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b68…4785backed White Dragons | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…c606backed Tung Tung Bogi | 55c | 99.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +13.2wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d14…36fdbacked White Dragons | 49c | 97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +16.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed White Dragons | 50c | 63.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 1,398 | 49.4%691 W · 707 L | -20.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Tung Tung Bogi | 57c | 49.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Tung Tung Bogi | 24c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,614 | 17.5%283 W · 1,331 L | -246.8wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…50d4backed Tung Tung Bogi | 33c | 35.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…db89backed Tung Tung Bogi | 34c | 35.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a635backed White Dragons | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: White Dragons vs Tung Tung Bogi - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- LoL: White Dragons vs Tung Tung Bogi (BO5) - LPLOL PlayoffsWhite Dragons won
- LoL: White Dragons vs Tung Tung Bogi - Game 2 WinnerWhite Dragons won
- LoL: White Dragons vs Tung Tung Bogi - Game 3 WinnerWhite Dragons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.