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Lol · resolved market

LoL: White Dragons vs Tung Tung Bogi - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
White Dragonsof White Dragons, Tung Tung Bogi
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,914
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,671

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,914 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfda…5504backed Tung Tung Bogi13c3,093$400 inLost-$400.218945.5%86 W · 103 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Tung Tung Bogi10c2,516$252 inLost-$251.653545.8%245 W · 290 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78e8…3c36backed Tung Tung Bogi13c1,923$250 inLost-$25020934.4%72 W · 137 L-0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Tung Tung Bogi14c1,104$159 inLost-$158.912,27933%753 W · 1,526 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tung Tung Bogi62c999$616 inLost-$615.731,89339.8%754 W · 1,139 L-68.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Tung Tung Bogi13c988$128 inLost-$128.4459134.2%202 W · 389 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Tung Tung Bogi12c872.24$105 inLost-$104.6725135.1%88 W · 163 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Tung Tung Bogi13c411.95$54 inLost-$53.5535540%142 W · 213 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Tung Tung Bogi12c384.85$46 inLost-$45.652,08830.6%639 W · 1,449 L-176.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Tung Tung Bogi19c350$66 inLost-$65.552046.5%242 W · 278 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c9…8709backed White Dragons34c324$110 inWon+$214.282161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+40.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Tung Tung Bogi10c309.7$31 inLost-$30.9730145.5%137 W · 164 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac3…6ec2backed Tung Tung Bogi20c288.73$58 inLost-$57.7514156.7%80 W · 61 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Tung Tung Bogi11c287.43$32 inLost-$32.3946938%178 W · 291 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Tung Tung Bogi11c262$28 inLost-$27.623,20634%1,089 W · 2,117 L-150.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d14…36fdbacked White Dragons47c220$103 inWon+$117.0516847.6%80 W · 88 L+16.4wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+47%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x672c…881bbacked Tung Tung Bogi13c197.46$26 inLost-$25.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-74.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Tung Tung Bogi17c109.46$19 inLost-$18.991,38347.4%655 W · 728 L-35.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d1e…0d81backed Tung Tung Bogi38c75.43$28 inLost-$28.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88f9…5c03backed Tung Tung Bogi20c61$12 inLost-$12.25655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e68…58f2backed Tung Tung Bogi37c50$19 inLost-$18.554472.7%32 W · 12 L+12.1wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+70.4%equal weight69+0.18 edge/pick
0xbc81…a635backed White Dragons45c44.44$20 inWon+$24.442857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67f6…1651backed White Dragons43c32.94$14 inWon+$18.6510339.8%41 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.