Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61fd9fb9ae204e834d00f31ba121ce0e8066f9aec9e54c30882f3bdd762c0e6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 1c | 3,604$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…7a79backed Yes | 0c | 2,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…514cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,142$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 11c | 1,160$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 8c | 558.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…8c71backed Yes | 18c | 433.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…8fa5backed Yes | 17c | 402.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…08fdbacked Yes | 7c | 369.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce14…cdf2backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 10c | 241.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 13c | 237.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 17c | 229$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 219.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked Yes | 14c | 204.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 14c | 179.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 170$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…9440backed Yes | 9c | 164.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 8c | 142.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 10c | 137.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 136.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 135.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…0aa4backed Yes | 15c | 131.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…f408backed Yes | 12c | 131.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 13c | 129$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 16c | 126.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 14c | 79.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.