Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd354410506f008fd96e5b696eecadb8f29c6c97c3ab6b774f6085e988fd997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86ff…9440backed No | 19c | 505.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 12c | 454.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f1…a3bfbacked No | 11c | 446.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 8c | 441.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 5c | 415.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 16c | 339.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 18c | 314.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…d53ebacked No | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 16c | 236.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2b…e6b5backed No | 18c | 234.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked No | 11c | 209.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 9c | 185.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…21e4backed No | 27c | 179.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb687…655bbacked No | 10c | 156.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 73c | 152.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 79c | 143.51$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 10c | 138.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 14c | 92.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 74c | 92.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…379fbacked No | 15c | 78.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 16c | 73.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…00ddbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…2556backed Yes | 70c | 71.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 78c | 57.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…1a80backed Yes | 80c | 47.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 28c | 46.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…3dbfbacked Yes | 69c | 41.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…7d5fbacked No | 31c | 32.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 52c | 21.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 68c | 20.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 66c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…faa5backed Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…0164backed Yes | 78c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c8…b47ebacked Yes | 69c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…8db7backed Yes | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 79c | 12.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.