MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6203bfeb3d712032b4a7fa269ef92504d938f901fa121487f45f1f0e58ef90e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cb4…3839backed Under | 56c | 2,963$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.49 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 38c | 967.01$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.38 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 44c | 673.67$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.06 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 499.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 435.65$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 320.3$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 181.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 41c | 144.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 41c | 126.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 35c | 44.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 31c | 37.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.