MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x402c52c541ad4ca060bc82b38c511fa8d74f4a76a41ed71dde63c001a2e52086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 499.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 61c | 457.15$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 450.53$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Houston Astros | 62c | 398.39$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 65c | 282.02$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Houston Astros | 65c | 274.38$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 243.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.48 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 207$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.27 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 61c | 202.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 143.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 142.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Houston Astros | 63c | 127.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…8c2ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 125.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Houston Astros | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 115.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 115$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 115$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Houston Astros | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 102.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 96.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…f991backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 91.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros | 52c | 81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 65c | 77.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 74.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Houston Astros | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 20c | 62.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Houston Astros | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 60.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 51.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros | 66c | 41.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 62c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 38.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Houston Astros | 53c | 38.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 63c | 24.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…6468backed Houston Astros | 62c | 20.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.