TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: European Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FOKUSof Inner Circle Esports, FOKUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,601
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,601 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5aa9…febebacked Inner Circle Esports48c4,119$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.71,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FOKUS45c2,433$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.033,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Inner Circle Esports58c2,080$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2051,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Inner Circle Esports60c1,658$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00337646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed FOKUS44c1,572$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.668951.7%46 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843c…126cbacked FOKUS49c1,362$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.3875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FOKUS32c1,295$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.462,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked FOKUS39c1,265$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.594434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Inner Circle Esports78c1,151$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.55,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FOKUS36c1,030$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.823,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Inner Circle Esports59c1,000$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.3315441.6%64 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed FOKUS44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x494c…8923backed Inner Circle Esports52c998.97$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52312351.2%63 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Inner Circle Esports56c926$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.9646843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Inner Circle Esports66c902$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.8232930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed FOKUS24c900.95$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.9530527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FOKUS46c890.17$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.576,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FOKUS47c858.42$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.875,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…5cd1backed Inner Circle Esports49c816.13$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.032166.7%14 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FOKUS36c731.26$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.494,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed FOKUS43c725.98$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.7585446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed FOKUS36c693.35$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.774,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Inner Circle Esports27c639.91$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4496545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed FOKUS44c630$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.26147.5%29 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3d…3ec1backed FOKUS48c626.36$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.362536%9 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Inner Circle Esports50c618.76$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.8147641.6%198 W · 278 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Inner Circle Esports64c609.58$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.361,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf740…cf50backed FOKUS70c601.62$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7113943.9%61 W · 78 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x605c…e932backed FOKUS45c578.35$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.351020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed FOKUS45c499.99$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2755257.7%30 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x481d…9098backed FOKUS45c499.99$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.996259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Inner Circle Esports73c474.29$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.63650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed FOKUS25c450.33$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.5743933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FOKUS40c450$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2705,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Inner Circle Esports55c432$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.67856.4%44 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed FOKUS62c430.47$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.96953.6%37 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Inner Circle Esports44c406.69$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1576546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked FOKUS57c384$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.5354346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Inner Circle Esports55c349.23$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.0855738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed FOKUS43c346.65$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.6569635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x471d…0c2abacked Inner Circle Esports76c329.68$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.271070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked FOKUS21c325.97$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.514634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed Inner Circle Esports54c325.71$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1771,24841.3%516 W · 732 L+5.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed FOKUS45c321.48$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.4831452.2%164 W · 150 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked FOKUS46c300.89$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.4813947.5%66 W · 73 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Inner Circle Esports54c299.76$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.8725337.9%96 W · 157 L-14.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Inner Circle Esports54c296$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.033852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Inner Circle Esports67c290$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.353545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Inner Circle Esports74c276$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.946344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bc7…613ebacked Inner Circle Esports61c249.89$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.458851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Inner Circle Esports55c240$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13245244.5%201 W · 251 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked FOKUS56c237.9$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0345956.9%261 W · 198 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Inner Circle Esports68c203$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2649745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed FOKUS25c200.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.2634547.5%164 W · 181 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf99e…bde6backed Inner Circle Esports66c189.68$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4558762.2%365 W · 222 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed Inner Circle Esports58c184.4$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9552947.1%249 W · 280 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked Inner Circle Esports55c184.09$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5233539.4%132 W · 203 L-19.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked Inner Circle Esports55c183.63$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10132352%168 W · 155 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa7…db93backed Inner Circle Esports55c182.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021867%146 W · 72 L+0.7wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Inner Circle Esports56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10058149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed FOKUS45c165.24$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2718454.3%100 W · 84 L+16.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa54e…97bcbacked FOKUS18c165$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.91833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20c…bf55backed Inner Circle Esports25c142.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.151936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed FOKUS54c141.42$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.152755.8%294 W · 233 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d7…4084backed Inner Circle Esports55c139.09$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Inner Circle Esports75c137.29$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9719350.3%97 W · 96 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcfa…cab8backed FOKUS80c137$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.41060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Inner Circle Esports40c132$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.883543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Inner Circle Esports54c127$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.581,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…cbe5backed FOKUS72c119.97$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.594459.1%26 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed FOKUS60c117.7$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.672,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Inner Circle Esports34c114$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7429647.6%141 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed FOKUS49c109$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8895849.8%477 W · 481 L-17.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked Inner Circle Esports59c108.42$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9745450.2%228 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed FOKUS47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.38650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Inner Circle Esports76c104$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9948948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Inner Circle Esports48c100.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.322,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked FOKUS22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781,07832%345 W · 733 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed Inner Circle Esports26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262642.3%11 W · 15 L+7.0wins+0.27per pick15cpaid+98.7%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7656…fd8fbacked Inner Circle Esports55c88.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fca…5f02backed FOKUS29c88.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.022040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae6e…b24fbacked Inner Circle Esports58c82.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.173161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FOKUS48c80.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.793,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40cc…f83abacked Inner Circle Esports41c80.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8412450%62 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Inner Circle Esports56c78.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.221,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed FOKUS46c77$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.587536%27 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed FOKUS42c76.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9643239.1%169 W · 263 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed FOKUS28c76.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1421137.4%79 W · 132 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Inner Circle Esports67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022555.6%125 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed FOKUS52c73.41$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.465166.7%34 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd13e…ca33backed FOKUS22c71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.389826.5%26 W · 72 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked FOKUS37c69.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0995642.6%407 W · 549 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Inner Circle Esports51c68.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1470038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51b7…2fc7backed FOKUS46c66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6443442.2%183 W · 251 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed FOKUS22c63.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1619935.7%71 W · 128 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd265…a7ecbacked Inner Circle Esports68c62.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.767651.3%39 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Inner Circle Esports54c60.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8312152.1%63 W · 58 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed FOKUS24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.631731.9%101 W · 216 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed FOKUS50c57.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9441054.6%224 W · 186 L+29.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed FOKUS65c57.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4293261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.