Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x623ae52ae0d7ffcc1811f5b0b8cd4d0b445d59bc75ead85d2ba1f2c89e553e3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LYONof LYON, Disguised
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66d2…4186backed Disguised | 54c | 3,693$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.1 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Disguised | 45c | 3,035$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.95 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed LYON | 55c | 2,300$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.92 | 918 | 54%496 W · 422 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Disguised | 39c | 902.52$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.7 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed LYON | 47c | 762.31$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.07 | 390 | 55.4%216 W · 174 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6139backed LYON | 59c | 721.02$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.72 | 353 | 46.7%165 W · 188 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked LYON | 54c | 674.38$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.22 | 704 | 56.4%397 W · 307 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Disguised | 43c | 601.32$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.86 | 591 | 48.2%285 W · 306 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…f681backed LYON | 54c | 599.99$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 370 | 39.5%146 W · 224 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed LYON | 47c | 580.74$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.69 | 2,490 | 47.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked LYON | 45c | 478.65$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.26 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed LYON | 45c | 429.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.38 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…0bcebacked LYON | 45c | 402.27$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed LYON | 56c | 399.92$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.96 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Disguised | 46c | 387.04$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.04 | 1,792 | 51.1%916 W · 876 L | +50.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Disguised | 46c | 387.04$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.04 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c35…7764backed LYON | 55c | 353.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Disguised | 46c | 338.66$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.78 | 362 | 46.4%168 W · 194 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Disguised | 46c | 319.31$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 269 | 50.9%137 W · 132 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1142…48abbacked LYON | 61c | 286.55$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed LYON | 62c | 211.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 194 | 37.6%73 W · 121 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Disguised | 42c | 211.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed LYON | 45c | 195.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed LYON | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 537 | 53.6%288 W · 249 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…edaabacked Disguised | 44c | 143.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Disguised | 42c | 129.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 316 | 50.3%159 W · 157 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed LYON | 45c | 128.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 183 | 42.1%77 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Disguised | 45c | 107.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked LYON | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed LYON | 45c | 100.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 322 | 53.1%171 W · 151 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked LYON | 57c | 99.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 1,482 | 50%741 W · 741 L | +65.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed LYON | 61c | 97.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked LYON | 48c | 96.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Disguised | 40c | 86.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed LYON | 46c | 83.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +16.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed LYON | 48c | 80.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Disguised | 44c | 76.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 47cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…8064backed Disguised | 44c | 61.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed LYON | 60c | 57.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Disguised | 44c | 57.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed LYON | 58c | 53.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed LYON | 57c | 49.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 578 | 55.5%321 W · 257 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed LYON | 58c | 48.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 360 | 47.5%171 W · 189 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Disguised | 44c | 46.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 48cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f01dbacked Disguised | 44c | 46.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 48cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…b2f5backed LYON | 60c | 45.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 169 | 50.3%85 W · 84 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…5be2backed Disguised | 45c | 30.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed LYON | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…1321backed LYON | 60c | 19.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 1 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 2 WinnerLYON won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.