Lol · resolved market
LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48bd9d4e7f770da88d8df08bac05d5ab41e78b3a76bf226bbc0c8d03ec395204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LYONof LYON, Disguised
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Disguised | 18c | 4,600$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.99 | 1,468 | 28.9%424 W · 1,044 L | +23.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Disguised | 18c | 1,384$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.15 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddd…1fc8backed LYON | 80c | 1,242$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.75 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…ed1fbacked Disguised | 18c | 1,089$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 158 | 21.5%34 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Disguised | 18c | 929.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.78 | 584 | 20.2%118 W · 466 L | -58.1wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Disguised | 18c | 861.81$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.75 | 1,092 | 52.4%572 W · 520 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Disguised | 19c | 806.15$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.09 | 854 | 42.7%365 W · 489 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Disguised | 18c | 699.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 1,225 | 49.6%607 W · 618 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed LYON | 80c | 630$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Disguised | 13c | 545.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 194 | 37.6%73 W · 121 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Disguised | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed Disguised | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Disguised | 23c | 490.05$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 756 | 30%227 W · 529 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Disguised | 18c | 449.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Disguised | 20c | 407.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed LYON | 78c | 378.21$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…eba7backed Disguised | 18c | 376.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Disguised | 9c | 317.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Disguised | 19c | 250.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Disguised | 18c | 206.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Disguised | 20c | 192.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 203 | 32%65 W · 138 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Disguised | 18c | 181.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Disguised | 19c | 169.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1,003 | 42.5%426 W · 577 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Disguised | 20c | 143.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Disguised | 18c | 121.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 177 | 39%69 W · 108 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…d191backed Disguised | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Disguised | 10c | 99.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 857 | 42.7%366 W · 491 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked LYON | 80c | 98.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…893cbacked Disguised | 15c | 97.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Disguised | 17c | 71.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,057 | 46.1%487 W · 570 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Disguised | 15c | 69.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,643 | 44.4%730 W · 913 L | -42.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79a…090cbacked Disguised | 19c | 60.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -60%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed Disguised | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed LYON | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed LYON | 79c | 30.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed LYON | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 153 | 70.6%108 W · 45 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…75e4backed LYON | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed LYON | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -7.0wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -24%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonthis page
- Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)LYON won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 1 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 2 WinnerLYON won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.