MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x623cd84619c400c7570f0f37d0130ee4fd29bdfa79105f57ef2063f86804b016
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 4,629$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 4,617$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 3,333$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 1,838$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.18 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 1,528$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 1,334$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 927.08$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.32 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 825$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 693.56$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 254$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 201.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 192.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 180$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.84 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 136.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 110.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 98.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 95.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 94.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 81.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 57.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…356bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 47.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 44.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 34.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 26.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 26.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 24.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…0860backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 24.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 18.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.