Tennis · resolved market
ITF Dallas: Maria Kononova vs Elena Mireles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x626131e528f97a6a94e7c1ff4afc18864eda1d802398f1d347c3382e93655f7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maria Kononovaof Maria Kononova, Elena Mireles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Maria Kononova | 72c | 3,227$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.58 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Elena Mireles | 24c | 1,361$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.64 | 378 | 49.2%186 W · 192 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Elena Mireles | 39c | 1,132$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.24 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Maria Kononova | 75c | 412$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Elena Mireles | 24c | 410.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Elena Mireles | 28c | 364$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Elena Mireles | 5c | 288$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 330 | 43.9%145 W · 185 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Maria Kononova | 69c | 187$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Elena Mireles | 40c | 169.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Elena Mireles | 26c | 148.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Maria Kononova | 73c | 146.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Elena Mireles | 24c | 143.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Elena Mireles | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,009 | 38.3%386 W · 623 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Elena Mireles | 27c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Elena Mireles | 19c | 115.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Elena Mireles | 23c | 113.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 826 | 57.1%472 W · 354 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Elena Mireles | 37c | 102.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Maria Kononova | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 568 | 53.9%306 W · 262 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Maria Kononova | 65c | 99.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Maria Kononova | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Elena Mireles | 41c | 73.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Maria Kononova | 60c | 71.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 410 | 61.5%252 W · 158 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Elena Mireles | 24c | 69.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Maria Kononova | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Maria Kononova | 78c | 64.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 377 | 76.1%287 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Elena Mireles | 40c | 56.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Elena Mireles | 29c | 42.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Maria Kononova | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Elena Mireles | 40c | 39.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Maria Kononova | 66c | 36.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Maria Kononova | 64c | 35.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 602 | 41.2%248 W · 354 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Maria Kononova | 63c | 31.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Maria Kononova | 65c | 27.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 746 | 46.1%344 W · 402 L | -30.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.