Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6282104cca2e5a2c5cdd2b3ed1ddd520fdc38048f44cd7add285c010a2fc4efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 707.25$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.68 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 4c | 600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 75c | 534.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 418.39$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 276.58$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 271.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 15c | 201.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 171.86$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 146.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 21c | 140.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 12c | 134.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…dab4backed Yes | 18c | 120.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 19c | 104.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 79c | 102.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 95.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8f…4d8abacked Yes | 12c | 94.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 91.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6491…fd86backed Yes | 18c | 88.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 18c | 82.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 68.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 67.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 18c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…de0abacked Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 25c | 51.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 47.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 40.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 36.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 17.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.