Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbadbdab22d7ea6149f1e6af1cd4f3c72a855a2c54a9343a94c888482eee63b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 29c | 1,772$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.78 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 895.99$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.74 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 593$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 500.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 419.46$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 378.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed Yes | 9c | 332.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 253$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 214$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 73c | 136.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 22c | 134.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 133.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 64c | 128.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 121.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 63c | 114.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 36c | 110.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 23c | 101.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 95.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 95.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 87.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 39c | 77.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 32c | 74.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked Yes | 36c | 71.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 27c | 70.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 67.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 64.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 74c | 63.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 59.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 56.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 50.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 48.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 63c | 47.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 32c | 46.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 24c | 41.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 80c | 40.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…d361backed Yes | 37c | 35.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 70c | 34.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…84bcbacked Yes | 37c | 33.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 25.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 75c | 13.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.