Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x629a7fb97a0c37fb2f1fa9cfbe00889c1e7d6d965f3d42bd46ca1c27a1cac10e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,738$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 5c | 1,005$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 13c | 630$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 8c | 575.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 9c | 432.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 399.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 19c | 392.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 369.93$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 323.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes | 22c | 294$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca5…9aacbacked Yes | 21c | 291.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed Yes | 18c | 260$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c21…1632backed Yes | 24c | 239.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…e847backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 11c | 197.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 168.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 152.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 7c | 147.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb158…a1efbacked Yes | 23c | 111.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 21c | 110.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 10c | 107$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…7a69backed Yes | 10c | 100.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 96.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 18c | 88.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…78a0backed Yes | 24c | 84.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked Yes | 24c | 81.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…f846backed Yes | 22c | 75.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 25c | 60.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked Yes | 27c | 48.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 80c | 27.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or below on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.