TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,526
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,526 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf7ed…4224backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes9c2,284$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49e4…6db2backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick2cpaid+525%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c64…348fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102611.5%3 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+476.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd17…f596backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f81…5410backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No21c651.21$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.0917243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No27c504.21$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.483,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9011332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No32c367.73$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.3884759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e13…2ac4backed Yes77c328.82$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.18825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No24c283.27$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.0559021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed Yes73c266.72$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.824325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes78c255.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37ce…ae71backed Yes70c250.15$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No39c217.77$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.762,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Yes71c216$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked No24c211.26$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.8213223.5%31 W · 101 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No30c201.25$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.451,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb358…5548backed Yes66c189.56$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11de…4e67backed No15c188.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.262540%10 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+39.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8535…2024backed Yes73c170$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0031…485abacked Yes65c170$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes66c169.43$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No25c168.42$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.5512251.6%63 W · 59 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa629…fe39backed No24c160$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.985446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x666f…9ddfbacked No27c160$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.210726.2%28 W · 79 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes70c154.87$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.192254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick60cpaid+10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No19c141.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.226339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7777…9446backed Yes78c141.55$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x348a…9c6bbacked No27c117.64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.628036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc23c…e889backed No31c114.06$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.265371.7%38 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaecd…f83cbacked Yes79c112.75$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No28c111.39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.132,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes60c111.13$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.364963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No18c110$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.223549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes72c108.87$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.523435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a95…af3ebacked Yes77c105$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4169…98e9backed No30c101.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.071866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa428…40c6backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x468f…a738backed Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662536%9 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.924010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes55c97.38$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.225016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51e0…1f63backed Yes70c96.02$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes52c92.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.453930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9fa…f447backed Yes56c89.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No32c83.74$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.648,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes61c82.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0214251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8106…f846backed Yes72c77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes72c76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7215558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e32…2635backed No33c72.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.741926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb93c…b4a2backed Yes70c72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf82…e079backed Yes71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes71c70$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.739541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a19…073dbacked No30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4916452.4%86 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes72c69.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed Yes74c67.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-73.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes72c66.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes54c65.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes69c65.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.122737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfb0…1b9ebacked No18c64.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.94252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d38…824cbacked Yes69c62.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.13129%9 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ad4…06a6backed No34c61.91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No21c60.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.039262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes71c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.66139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b9e…1217backed No30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes70c58.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.931,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x227d…8719backed Yes71c56.86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4272…5ab0backed Yes80c55.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.112152.4%11 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-25.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes72c51.48$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1127841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b0…a3d5backed No24c50.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.181553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick29cpaid+48.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf0f…2458backed No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.54753.2%25 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d65…2061backed No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.57560%45 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2727246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.52236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391c…68d1backed No49c49.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.495152.9%27 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No48c48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dca…4bc5backed Yes74c47.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.713262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce15…5c0abacked Yes71c45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1015…d6e6backed Yes67c44.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf43d…dd08backed Yes77c44.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.311782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbacc…ee61backed Yes72c44.8$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d4…f54ebacked Yes68c44.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4b…6b39backed Yes70c42.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x584d…75d6backed Yes74c42.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7464…71cfbacked Yes72c41.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.161172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c75…a28ebacked No49c41.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.152343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8ec…40edbacked Yes70c41.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.981338.5%5 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick63cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x52ce…1da9backed Yes75c40.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid+169%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.155545.5%25 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2469…b6bcbacked Yes75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0470…6811backed Yes73c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes71c38.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1165934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x020c…0c98backed Yes70c35.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-80.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.