Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeefc9d7a1bebd1550a3f569c1830372f5b8328170512018a9718ad95ac8bb544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x219c…4a95backed No | 1c | 3,474$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…0c98backed No | 1c | 2,983$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked No | 15c | 1,292$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 78c | 888.55$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.91 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 78c | 878.82$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.27 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 3c | 599$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 61c | 549.99$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.99 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 37c | 548.03$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.17 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 537.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes | 16c | 489.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 14c | 407.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.29 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.1 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 5c | 345.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 18c | 274.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.11 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 25c | 229.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 24c | 200.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 12c | 199.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.79 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…2024backed No | 66c | 192.81$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 65c | 186.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…3fa3backed Yes | 16c | 186.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 171.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 24c | 168.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…f560backed Yes | 54c | 166.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…c007backed Yes | 14c | 154.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4c6cbacked Yes | 15c | 142.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +236%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 21c | 136.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 44c | 132.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0f…72ddbacked Yes | 56c | 129.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 14c | 109$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 27c | 107.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 46c | 104.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 14c | 98.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e6…9b62backed Yes | 13c | 90.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 80c | 89.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…a3d5backed Yes | 29c | 84.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 29cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 12c | 80.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +169%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 18c | 78.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 77.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 36c | 74.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…72cbbacked Yes | 22c | 73.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9219…d304backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6839…a6d2backed Yes | 25c | 72.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…6387backed Yes | 37c | 67.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed Yes | 28c | 62.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…f9e1backed Yes | 19c | 61.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 55.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe323…f90abacked No | 75c | 42.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 28c | 36.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 35.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 67c | 34.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec1…9c96backed No | 35c | 31.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…9436backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 60c | 28.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…0341backed No | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 21.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc175…8b21backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or below on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.