NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b48e12af11efab564eb7fc838af65a3090f857042358dd971f1d7652e36fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 9,940$5,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,671.8 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 47c | 5,833$2,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.58 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 44c | 4,718$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.86 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 3,935$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.6 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Over | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.85 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 55c | 3,333$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.85 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Over | 46c | 3,250$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 46c | 1,328$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.65 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 53c | 1,057$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.6 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 608$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.76 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 52c | 444$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 272.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.08 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 222$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 54c | 148$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Under | 51c | 96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 53c | 67.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 44c | 60.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 70c | 40.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 54c | 24.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Maple Leafs vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.