NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0eebf9f4eff4653c76c9115c0ff8754c6024c5e9441d8bd799519982babdc99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Maple Leafs, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $573,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $588,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $573,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6b4…a278backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 299,705$118,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118,014.93 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Capitals | 61c | 176,317$106,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,607.86 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Capitals | 61c | 68,864$42,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,856.85 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Capitals | 60c | 49,914$29,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,965.75 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals | 61c | 38,459$23,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,999 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Maple Leafs | 39c | 34,567$13,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,481.13 | 177 | 49.2%87 W · 90 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Capitals | 60c | 30,000$18,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,000 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb44c…0c03backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 29,248$11,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,991.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7117…23e4backed Capitals | 60c | 25,911$15,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,364.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 20,000$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,999.99 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Maple Leafs | 40c | 11,549$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,619.56 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals | 60c | 10,284$6,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,133.47 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Capitals | 61c | 8,000$4,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 5,546$3,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,923.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…e868backed Capitals | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 4,866$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.23 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Capitals | 53c | 4,513$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.38 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Capitals | 59c | 4,403$2,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.53 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Capitals | 25c | 3,802$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,853.72 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…1251backed Capitals | 60c | 3,333$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Capitals | 61c | 3,279$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.69 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Capitals | 29c | 3,010$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,137.14 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa71a…e4e2backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 2,919$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 2,727$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.27 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Capitals | 28c | 2,720$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.41 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Capitals | 60c | 2,516$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.4 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Capitals | 60c | 2,087$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.67 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Capitals | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 1,882$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.79 | 622 | 49.4%307 W · 315 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 1,782$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.89 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Capitals | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.34 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b7febacked Maple Leafs | 43c | 1,598$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 1,597$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.2 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf9…5d1bbacked Capitals | 30c | 1,223$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Capitals | 44c | 1,202$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.5 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 1,200$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Capitals | 30c | 1,146$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.2 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 1,140$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.41 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Capitals | 45c | 1,115$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.03 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Maple Leafs | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 1,072$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.38 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 1,010$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.75 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Capitals | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Capitals | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 980$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.8 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Capitals | 57c | 840.12$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.25 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Capitals | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Capitals | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…312ebacked Maple Leafs | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Capitals | 43c | 682.8$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.22 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 622.37$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 510 | 44.5%227 W · 283 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Maple Leafs | 76c | 616.14$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Capitals | 29c | 606.14$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.36 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a79…b116backed Capitals | 61c | 567.32$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.49 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.35per pick | 54cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Capitals | 60c | 557.25$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.9 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Capitals | 51c | 553$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.16 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 503.71$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.03 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 499.98$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Capitals | 60c | 476.73$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.69 | 1,079 | 54.3%586 W · 493 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fb…0a53backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 476.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…169ebacked Capitals | 66c | 446.59$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Maple Leafs | 17c | 403$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Capitals | 61c | 398.36$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.36 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Capitals | 79c | 384$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 521 | 72.6%378 W · 143 L | +36.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Capitals | 42c | 357.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…6866backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 347.34$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Capitals | 29c | 346.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.79 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…da62backed Capitals | 30c | 334.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.17 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Capitals | 60c | 334$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…849ebacked Capitals | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Capitals | 48c | 330.4$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.09 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Capitals | 61c | 318.56$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…0884backed Capitals | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Capitals | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…e109backed Capitals | 63c | 296.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 293$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Capitals | 32c | 290.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.49 | 268 | 48.5%130 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Maple Leafs | 76c | 269.78$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 262.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Capitals | 60c | 259.3$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Capitals | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 749 | 51.8%388 W · 361 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…ad20backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Maple Leafs | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 242.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Capitals | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…9fb3backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 224.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Capitals | 60c | 220$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Capitals | 47c | 213.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…f888backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 206$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Capitals | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…34f2backed Capitals | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Capitalsthis page
- Maple Leafs vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.