Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b64a1539ef9c94355a24725758ecd05e93fe78dbf0373d25b896e369a304cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 398.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 359$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 46c | 326.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 26c | 308.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 296.06$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 241.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 236$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 17c | 188.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 182.79$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 57c | 178.57$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 42c | 174.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 170.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 32c | 158.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 31c | 138.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 37c | 117.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 22c | 115.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 110.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 43c | 90.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 71.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 55c | 71.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 69.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 44c | 68.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 66.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes | 45c | 65.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 38c | 63.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 55c | 55.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 64c | 55.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 52.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 58c | 52.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 43c | 50.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed No | 57c | 50.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 60c | 50.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 33c | 50.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…0bbfbacked No | 55c | 49.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 36c | 48.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 30c | 48.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…79c4backed No | 56c | 47.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 41c | 46.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 77c | 45.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 43c | 44.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 44.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 44.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 25c | 43.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed No | 57c | 42.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 29c | 41.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 39c | 39.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…5516backed No | 40c | 37.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 43c | 37.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 35.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 48c | 34.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 50c | 34.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 78c | 33.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 32.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 50c | 30.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 59c | 29.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…3f4bbacked Yes | 47c | 27.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 60c | 26.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 46c | 26.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 73c | 25.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 25.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 45c | 22.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 73c | 17.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 76c | 14.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.