Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90b9a201326797ebffb3b22a1e6cbcf2798481ff1bbd89f18265197673a3d919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,138$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 398.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 23c | 357.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 357.52$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 69c | 290.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 74c | 276.93$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.92 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 66c | 274.03$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.69 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 216$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 206.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…aff8backed Yes | 27c | 183.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 182.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes | 50c | 175.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 55c | 171.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 41c | 169.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 157.45$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 152.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 130.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 110.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 63c | 102.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 101.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 51c | 97.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 32c | 91.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 44c | 86.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 79.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 58c | 69.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 54c | 66.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 41c | 61.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…b3f6backed No | 47c | 61.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 28c | 57.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed No | 50c | 57.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed Yes | 32c | 55.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 57c | 54.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 30c | 53.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 53.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 63c | 53.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 56c | 53.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked No | 47c | 53.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 32c | 53.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 52.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 51.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 46.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf127…da86backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 39c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 56c | 45.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 32c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 48c | 40.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked Yes | 72c | 38.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 66c | 37.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 35.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 51c | 34.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 34.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 78c | 32.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 38c | 29.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 28.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 47c | 28.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 58c | 26.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 57c | 26.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed No | 55c | 26.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 25.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 48c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…f73bbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 48c | 24.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 48c | 24.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 51c | 19.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.