NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b7e46190c67019f5acd178a9e34df763443366f01ba2b3a5531474479fa01c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 60c | 1,681$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.65 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 1,518$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.86 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 376.51$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.14 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Under | 59c | 339.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 58c | 171.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 57c | 103$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Under | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…398bbacked Under | 49c | 91.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 58c | 72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Under | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Under | 79c | 63.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Over | 42c | 54.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 58c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed Over | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Over | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…a20dbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +5.9wins | +0.37per pick | 51cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Over | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Over | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Over | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Over | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…91eebacked Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Flames vs. SharksSharks won
- Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.