Premier League · resolved market
Will Crystal Palace beat Brentford?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62bc8372c84d3f314126d91633c04fd2e9605af82579806c9a8534a3ee4a8eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48cc…f76cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 35c | 2,748$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 65c | 2,500$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 66c | 1,006$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.61 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 36c | 692.25$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.21 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 34c | 665.87$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 64c | 650$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 65c | 322.05$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 34c | 175$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 64c | 99.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 59c | 72.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…c71fbacked Yes | 46c | 66.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed No | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…e58ebacked Yes | 45c | 39.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…a12ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…246bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…51d0backed No | 66c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crystal Palace beat Brentford?this page
- Will Brentford beat Crystal Palace?Yes won
- Will Brentford vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.