MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62bfa0b3bfcbb1c35d11ea4c86ea98b6bb09db35a335b5f8cce9be28d6fd1aae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 4c | 40,380$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.36 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 56c | 1,792$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.29 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 812$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 44c | 671.2$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.33 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 44c | 480.49$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.42 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 43c | 423.72$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 57c | 419$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.17 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 34c | 407.16$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 57c | 391.82$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.48 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 17c | 143$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Over | 33c | 59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 67c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 42c | 30.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 56c | 20.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.