MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd080ce7553bd060d81d350ad57e2f55b140473e9e2e0e2c995c8f47878350e68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 49c | 74,739$36,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,116.79 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 31,680$16,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,156.8 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 10,769$5,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,492 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 8,692$4,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,433.03 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 10c | 8,053$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.63 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.83 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 40c | 618$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.35 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 588.12$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 581.07$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 420$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 75c | 413.69$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 51c | 390$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 51c | 320$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 275.45$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 51c | 267$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.17 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 49c | 215.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Under | 5c | 206.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Under | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Under | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 105.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 67.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Under | 55c | 60.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 39c | 52.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Over | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 49c | 44.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 44c | 43.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd3…1e7fbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…6d36backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…188abacked Under | 38c | 26.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 52c | 25.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.