Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62ce31877d94cd3c85c39a85a09e351ad43322c79421761be393c251b5ac9ce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,265 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Yes | 61c | 8,083$4,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,187.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 40c | 1,180$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.13 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 1,177$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.43 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 40c | 1,168$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 32c | 868.63$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.86 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 60c | 749.27$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.71 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 41c | 550.75$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.14 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 79c | 411.61$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…132abacked No | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +75%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Yes | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 40c | 330.18$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed No | 43c | 280.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 36c | 226.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05c…64bdbacked No | 41c | 167.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…d7c5backed Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 40c | 100.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874f…b0a5backed Yes | 60c | 91.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked No | 44c | 77.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977c…8c15backed Yes | 60c | 76.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 40c | 67.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…ffc2backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked No | 40c | 49.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 71c | 49.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 38c | 37.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…e34ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd714…8240backed Yes | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…c5ddbacked Yes | 59c | 25.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 60c | 20.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.