Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d5f94e11e0b5bc3ef625512b8ed2ecab14461a5719612fac0697ce97aaa5c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,452 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 3,661$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 1,838$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.57 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 31c | 998.99$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.76 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 67c | 742.92$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.37 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 47c | 572.03$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 17c | 559.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Under | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…599bbacked Over | 42c | 469.43$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 33c | 465.87$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.53 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 31c | 464.64$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.04 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Under | 47c | 403.58$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.15 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 29c | 398$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 68c | 368$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Over | 50c | 299.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 55c | 250.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 14c | 229.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 217.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 66c | 204.59$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 34c | 189$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…4632backed Over | 15c | 175.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 29c | 173.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 18c | 164.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 65c | 98.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 78c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Over | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 78c | 83.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 32c | 78.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 71.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 36c | 63.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 32c | 63.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Over | 60c | 47.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Under | 70c | 34.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 49c | 32.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Under | 40c | 25.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2709backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed Under | 74c | 21.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ea…296dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…1e75backed Under | 69c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Under | 67c | 16.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 67c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.