Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62d4951c4cf8207ddf95213672341417b9194e3f50a93666e4c69cc9e7f8e00a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 990.97$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.98 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 365.18$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 291.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 272$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 263.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 226$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 9c | 182.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 8c | 179.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 173.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 155.65$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 132.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked No | 67c | 131.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 12c | 120.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 73c | 109.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 10c | 105.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…0284backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 26c | 96.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 92.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 70c | 87.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 83.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 78.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 72.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 70c | 70.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 66.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 54.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 53.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 28c | 51.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 25c | 47.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 71c | 46.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 29c | 45.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…e428backed Yes | 32c | 44.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 69c | 38.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 32c | 37.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 35.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 32.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 31c | 31.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 33c | 30.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe892…4dcdbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 80c | 24.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.