Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2329423befccba8886038dfcfd7d60f0074f37ed0aa84903e5805f7893ce682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 707.02$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 599.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.99 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 423.95$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 357.92$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 19c | 307.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 299.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 251.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 213.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 65c | 209.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…0284backed Yes | 55c | 183.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 155.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 44c | 148.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 139.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 123.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…28cabacked Yes | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 114.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 41c | 108.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 44c | 103.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 56c | 94.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 28c | 91.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 81.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 80.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 78.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 74.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 70c | 64.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 37c | 64.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 44c | 63.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 59c | 49.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 22c | 46.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 70c | 42.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 33c | 42.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed No | 35c | 38.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe892…4dcdbacked Yes | 53c | 37.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 34.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…45f7backed Yes | 41c | 29.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…6af8backed Yes | 55c | 23.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 60c | 23.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…e292backed Yes | 76c | 20.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 58c | 18.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 67c | 17.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…92bbbacked Yes | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed No | 72c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.