Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62d793588ae67d5332ad77b8888f11fc1b059a87841f7fcf88254d1697eb3d2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolina State Wolfpackof North Carolina State Wolfpack, Florida State Seminoles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $360,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $360,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Florida State Seminoles | 54c | 329,650$176,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176,847.74 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 46c | 220,000$102,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117,800 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 46c | 75,000$34,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,500 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 46c | 13,000$5,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,020 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…b85dbacked Florida State Seminoles | 53c | 11,068$5,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,841.55 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,180 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,180 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 3,309$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.98 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 3,138$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.3 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 3,136$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.68 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 46c | 2,460$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.4 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 1,805$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.83 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 1,460$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.24 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 46c | 510.72$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.79 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 504$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.12 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 250$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 247.9$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.17 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 223$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Florida State Seminoles | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 172.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…3f90backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 49c | 143.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 103.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 48c | 87.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Florida State Seminoles | 47c | 40.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…ce53backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 32.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 210 | 59.5%125 W · 85 L | +17.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c88…d85dbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack | 47c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed North Carolina State Wolfpack | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-4.5)this page
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Florida State SeminolesNorth Carolina State Wolfpack won
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 159.5Over won
- North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-5.5)North Carolina State Wolfpack won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.