Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62dbd479393fee76f070bf05287a56c8fb92b3f301c5fa694c794cb248bbfeef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,580 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 34c | 2,733$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 1,481$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 24c | 1,147$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.5 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 13c | 757.51$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 11c | 433.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 432.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 401$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 68c | 379.29$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.81 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 4c | 351.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 67c | 334.44$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 30c | 325.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 325.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 295.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 271.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 268.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a19…5c56backed Yes | 10c | 260.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 256.53$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 239.05$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe678…9dcdbacked Yes | 36c | 193.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 11c | 165.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 80c | 153.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 149.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 36c | 140.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 131.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd739…ecb6backed Yes | 12c | 121.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 12c | 120.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd664…cd4cbacked Yes | 19c | 117$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…3362backed Yes | 20c | 111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e81…807cbacked Yes | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 16c | 106.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 106$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 30c | 104.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 67c | 97.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 97.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2f…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 86.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 67c | 84.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 82.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 20c | 76.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 74.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c68…072dbacked Yes | 19c | 72.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 71.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 70c | 71.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 21c | 69.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 65c | 69.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 66c | 63.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 65c | 61.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73ce…d2bebacked No | 66c | 60.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 56.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 34c | 51.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 51.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 67c | 51.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 48.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af4…98b1backed No | 80c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 64c | 46.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…7c37backed No | 79c | 46.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 65c | 45.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 65c | 44.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 26c | 44.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…a14ebacked No | 64c | 44.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03bd…9762backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe349…6beebacked No | 77c | 38.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 64c | 38.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 35c | 38.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a8…7ce7backed No | 66c | 37.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c7…14babacked No | 67c | 37.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa29…ec42backed No | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…c2d0backed Yes | 32c | 34.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 64c | 32.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…f370backed No | 67c | 29.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…75abbacked No | 65c | 27.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 49c | 27.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 67c | 27.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 64c | 26.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c52…c733backed No | 66c | 26.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 26.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed No | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 70c | 24.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 62c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…c377backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…3146backed No | 65c | 23.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd1…8e6fbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…c9e9backed No | 66c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…ed4ebacked No | 70c | 22.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.