Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8552a28682ac7f674fb473a58cbb1a794fb6696532019e478166cd729131644f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,958 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 0c | 6,112$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 56c | 1,509$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.21 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 19c | 530.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 8c | 497.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 401.4$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 392$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 43c | 296.51$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 44c | 294.69$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 36c | 267.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 39c | 196.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 166.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 142.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 42c | 141.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 63c | 135.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 127.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 38c | 119$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 113.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…560dbacked No | 60c | 113$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 107.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 52c | 103.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 97.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 24c | 95.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 92.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2f…37a6backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…b05ebacked Yes | 36c | 80.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 77.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 75.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 40c | 75.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 73.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 39c | 66.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 56c | 60.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 40c | 58.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 58c | 55.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27a…f59fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 52.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 37c | 51.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 39c | 50.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…8384backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…1aaabacked No | 56c | 49.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 46.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 44.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 43c | 44.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…f943backed Yes | 27c | 43.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +112%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 55c | 41.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…9a01backed No | 58c | 41.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 39.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 36c | 39.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…a8e9backed Yes | 44c | 37.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a1…4a7cbacked Yes | 48c | 37.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 58c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 38c | 36.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 35.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…6f32backed No | 58c | 35.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 34.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 44c | 33.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 62c | 33.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 40c | 32.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 77c | 27.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293a…24f9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed No | 62c | 24.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…11ecbacked No | 60c | 22.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 21.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 68c | 15.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.