TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,179 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fcc…bf17backed Yes2c1,508$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-69.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a19…5c56backed Yes3c1,037$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes72c685.92$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.6141845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes72c341.24$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.3154143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe005…7093backed Yes30c332.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-81.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes41c312.52$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4377428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes75c307.8$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.171,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No38c280.81$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.4553925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes19c263.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba3a…e041backed Yes80c250$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.789927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8454…c8e4backed Yes56c246.3$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.936654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c222.09$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.364,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes73c221.05$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5911436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No31c209$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.82,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes70c200$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.210154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6211533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes73c193.27$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7588028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe678…9dcdbacked Yes29c192.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes22c191.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1161929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes15c190.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.881,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c186.31$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes7c181.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9224414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7088…0086backed Yes79c174.45$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.149534.7%33 W · 62 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c165.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.537,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes42c163.77$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.51,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c162.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked No34c146.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.124066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5327…86cbbacked Yes80c131.38$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.962673.1%19 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes78c124.06$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2757659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes29c122.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2770133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No24c122$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7212154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c120.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.977,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No79c119.76$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.749675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No74c115.48$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.681,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes43c111.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.716,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No22c110.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.138,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c109$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.383,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes19c105$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9523823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71b5…d067backed No45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558246.3%38 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3742…0b59backed Yes70c99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes40c98.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4610562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574c…8a65backed Yes32c93.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes65c89.6$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5842438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No41c84.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1523547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…522abacked No24c83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0810237.3%38 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked No22c82.61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.146934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No36c79.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1823035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes20c77.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4129653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes21c71.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1555942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes17c69.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.814826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa654…58c9backed Yes44c68.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No40c67.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.312,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ebd…61f9backed Yes69c67.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.41442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No70c67.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.31,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c65.34$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.129,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes63c64.74$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.714235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.237644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes60c59.11$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.543021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes78c57.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa895…faacbacked Yes76c57.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4920338.4%78 W · 125 L+30.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+177%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb822…1422backed No61c56.43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.292969%20 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No38c55.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes19c54.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.33036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes25c53.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.314915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes29c51.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8825839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b9…cea8backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.623738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x061f…fc87backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No45c44.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4421848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd6…bcd2backed No80c44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.432044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c36…e462backed Yes27c39.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes78c38.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3134846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b60…19a7backed No76c36.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.851020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6160…fdfcbacked No40c34.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.453554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes80c31.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1818255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.553759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4cc…c448backed Yes49c28.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No72c26.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4932548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6580…6fa8backed No60c25.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.397628.9%22 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0686…9020backed Yes78c25.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d33…0199backed Yes79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed Yes75c23.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.053542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes57c21.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.411,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes54c21.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.611,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ce…618dbacked Yes80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615b…2ba8backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.63467.6%23 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210258.8%60 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29ec…9a9fbacked Yes78c19.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked No74c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.948076.3%61 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ac…b128backed Yes78c16.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes63c15.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e85…560dbacked Yes77c15.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.96520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-64.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No70c14.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2916639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed No78c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.865058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.