TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,321
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,321 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf405…9df2backed No57c1,702$974 inWon+$727.625066.4%166 W · 84 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc246…14c6backed Yes43c900$387 inLost-$387666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yes42c713.87$300 inLost-$299.821,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes43c533.37$231 inLost-$231.439,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed No57c428.26$244 inWon+$184.731,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb882…fcabbacked Yes36c229.81$83 inLost-$82.6955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No64c193.31$124 inWon+$69.5947743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No65c135.99$88 inWon+$47.622,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55a7…569ebacked No59c132.76$78 inWon+$54.641464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Yes43c75$32 inLost-$32.251,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed Yes34c59.7$21 inLost-$20.563839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa10…065abacked No54c50$27 inWon+$234151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c0…244ebacked Yes46c48.38$22 inLost-$22.2521948.4%106 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Yes41c46.54$19 inLost-$19.085,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89bc…a463backed No59c34.72$20 inWon+$14.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed No62c34.54$21 inWon+$13.242,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf08b…7e76backed No57c34.05$19 inWon+$14.576076.7%46 W · 14 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+29.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc84f…c9ecbacked Yes42c27.99$12 inLost-$11.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-48.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d84…a7bdbacked Yes36c27.66$10 inLost-$10.072846.4%13 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked No70c15$11 inWon+$4.441,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.