South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62ef4fe7d16935b83351a284c973b903646649ecf71d1e0e042e7d4c6d493543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 70c | 2,999$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.83 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 2,618$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 27c | 2,249$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.95 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 14c | 2,160$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.79 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 47c | 840.93$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.69 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 53c | 796.68$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.24 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 71c | 753.03$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.03 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 33c | 701$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.12 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 692.03$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 29c | 618$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.22 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 31c | 519.26$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.97 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 71c | 444$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 66c | 349.8$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 29c | 340.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 69c | 284$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 30c | 269.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 244.59$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 193.83$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Yes | 31c | 164.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Yes | 8c | 151.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 29c | 149.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed No | 77c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 15c | 85.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 30c | 66.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed No | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Yes | 53c | 56.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 31c | 55.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2232backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 54.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 54.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 35c | 54.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 66c | 37.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed No | 62c | 35.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 32c | 34.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…3976backed No | 66c | 30.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 72c | 27.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed Yes | 51c | 20.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed6a…841ebacked No | 72c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-02-04?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-02-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.