South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-02-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x452717c1fae4dd0bf4ddcfd95cab7608fc0445683b7f40fe772c974daf9e1772
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 6,384$4,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.37 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 4,461$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.24 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 29c | 4,052$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.11 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked No | 71c | 3,174$2,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…9dacbacked Yes | 59c | 2,029$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.37 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 59c | 1,908$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.48 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 28c | 1,741$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.84 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 1,511$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 45c | 1,271$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.88 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 30c | 1,006$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 947.22$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.46 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 41c | 849$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.84 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 61c | 833.56$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.12 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 633.5$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 27c | 473.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.77 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Yes | 53c | 472$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 64c | 468.32$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.32 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 27c | 437.04$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 42c | 429.03$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.84 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 23c | 374.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed No | 40c | 343.53$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…4b2fbacked Yes | 30c | 336.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 7c | 245.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Yes | 10c | 238.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 29c | 234$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 203.19$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 63c | 176.72$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 62c | 170.58$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 43c | 157.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.02 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 10c | 141$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 71c | 140.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 71c | 121$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Yes | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 29c | 113$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Yes | 29c | 112.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked No | 75c | 107.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 72c | 89.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 65c | 89.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Yes | 58c | 86.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe968…de6fbacked No | 74c | 78.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 43c | 74.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 27c | 73.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 29c | 68.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked No | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 66cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…9a09backed No | 44c | 65.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 60c | 64.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…5964backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 26c | 56.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f8…aac7backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 71c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…3976backed No | 75c | 48.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…1872backed Yes | 29c | 45.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36a3…9051backed Yes | 29c | 41.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…ea1dbacked Yes | 29c | 35.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb235…c047backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…0df2backed No | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 44c | 25.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…2208backed No | 74c | 21.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 71c | 20.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2232backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…12ffbacked No | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-02-04?this page
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-02-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.