NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Kings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630c54147c9ba03a5dbbc33a293af74622f7ec69c14aa8f4ea0704301c21ff30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Magic, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Kings | 51c | 9,385$4,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,561.57 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Magic | 48c | 6,822$3,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,297.25 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Magic | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Kings | 50c | 3,277$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.48 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Magic | 50c | 3,022$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.3 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Magic | 43c | 2,245$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.85 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kings | 55c | 1,805$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.25 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…dcfbbacked Magic | 54c | 1,245$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…943abacked Kings | 46c | 1,245$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Kings | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Magic | 50c | 640$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Kings | 57c | 600$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Magic | 51c | 499.94$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.97 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Magic | 2c | 420$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Magic | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Kings | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2040…7743backed Magic | 45c | 222.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…0674backed Magic | 6c | 216.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Magic | 49c | 203.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Magic | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Magic | 46c | 199.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…b17dbacked Kings | 63c | 197.79$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Kings | 55c | 189.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Kings | 51c | 177.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Magic | 40c | 166.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7ceabacked Magic | 49c | 132$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510a…cd0ebacked Kings | 51c | 132$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…3012backed Magic | 56c | 124.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Magic | 24c | 119.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Kings | 58c | 113.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7a…b24cbacked Magic | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f6…2e19backed Magic | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b74…2bc1backed Kings | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…9ae6backed Kings | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Magic | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Magic | 47c | 99.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kings | 51c | 98.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Magic | 43c | 87.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…637bbacked Kings | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Magic | 49c | 83.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf61…8633backed Kings | 47c | 78.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Magic | 46c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Magic | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Kings | 78c | 55.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Kings | 59c | 54.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…52a2backed Kings | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Kings | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | -20.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Magic | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 229 | 39.7%91 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c3…b35abacked Magic | 43c | 46.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Magic | 51c | 45.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…ee63backed Kings | 47c | 42.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Kings | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Magic | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35d…4164backed Kings | 49c | 31.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc65…bd7bbacked Kings | 50c | 30.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…b0b9backed Magic | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Magic | 45c | 26.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Magic | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Magic | 46c | 23.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Kings | 58c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Magic | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.