MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6310a875e79f09c71a7e3312df2eb9e7442182d28a51bbddfa67fefb27b0686a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Reds, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1642…5988backed Reds | 41c | 2,023$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.52 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfc…b032backed Cubs | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…b955backed Reds | 40c | 1,990$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.99 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Reds | 3c | 1,961$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 59c | 1,926$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.83 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cubs | 65c | 1,696$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.47 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Reds | 36c | 1,544$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.84 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Reds | 4c | 1,102$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Reds | 6c | 935$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cubs | 59c | 849.92$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.47 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Reds | 2c | 768.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Reds | 40c | 727.82$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.13 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Reds | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Reds | 41c | 609.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Reds | 3c | 578.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 17c | 557.66$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Reds | 19c | 553.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 192 | 33.3%64 W · 128 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Reds | 3c | 505.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0b…44fdbacked Reds | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Reds | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Reds | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Reds | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ce…bca1backed Cubs | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Cubs | 59c | 299.98$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Cubs | 60c | 240.06$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Cubs | 58c | 217.23$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cubs | 59c | 199.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Reds | 39c | 189.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982d…753abacked Reds | 41c | 126.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…c104backed Reds | 41c | 110.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cubs | 60c | 106$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Reds | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb369…3d39backed Cubs | 60c | 91.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc782…3fc5backed Cubs | 60c | 87.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Cubs | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…6f79backed Cubs | 60c | 84.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b8…743cbacked Cubs | 60c | 82.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacaf…abaabacked Cubs | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Reds | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…84babacked Cubs | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…bc4ebacked Reds | 41c | 64.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds | 40c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cubs | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Cubs | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Reds | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…634dbacked Reds | 41c | 43.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cubs | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Cubs | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Cubs | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Reds | 38c | 30.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…fe6abacked Cubs | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…beafbacked Reds | 41c | 25.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…1480backed Cubs | 64c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.