Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen beat AC Milan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6338e73e3b41af43b6c508aee71e0ed01d4cca4fa0493c17d03ed6cd995e7714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 41c | 7,132$2,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.98 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 65c | 4,129$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.91 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 32c | 2,529$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.99 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…bc8ebacked No | 43c | 2,198$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1780…1b2dbacked Yes | 59c | 2,198$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a68…6dd5backed Yes | 60c | 1,593$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 40c | 1,020$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.84 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4e…c452backed Yes | 60c | 1,002$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…0ee0backed No | 43c | 839.58$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 53c | 777.63$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.17 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 48c | 715.18$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 41c | 499.97$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 40c | 499.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed No | 48c | 423.97$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d1…8eb2backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f01…84c7backed Yes | 59c | 372.89$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cc…b203backed No | 43c | 372.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…4586backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 57c | 315.73$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.41 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…66a9backed No | 41c | 267.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d6…e639backed No | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 61c | 234.26$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed Yes | 59c | 195$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 62c | 192.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 41c | 192.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…7b00backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 16c | 172.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x679a…aa00backed No | 42c | 171.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 60c | 166.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…106dbacked Yes | 61c | 163.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…5a3abacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked Yes | 53c | 115.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…7fb6backed No | 43c | 115.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…a1aabacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…92f7backed Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a3…00e8backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a4…f169backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…160fbacked Yes | 61c | 59.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…be30backed No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 66c | 45.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…bcfdbacked Yes | 61c | 38.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…feb8backed Yes | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed No | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed37…5748backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…c603backed Yes | 61c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen beat AC Milan?this page
- Will AC Milan beat Bayer Leverkusen?No won
- Will the match between Bayer Leverkusen and AC Milan end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.