TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,558 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pittsburgh Pirates54c4,456$2,419 inWon+$2,037.871,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers49c4,439$2,193 inLost-$2,193.334,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers46c1,805$821 inLost-$821.2111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates40c1,189$480 inWon+$708.9910,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates55c131.82$72 inWon+$59.3220156.2%113 W · 88 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa803…0f56backed Milwaukee Brewers68c119.57$81 inLost-$81.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed Pittsburgh Pirates45c111.11$50 inWon+$61.114748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Pittsburgh Pirates52c84.62$44 inWon+$40.6254951.2%281 W · 268 L+29.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates52c82.69$43 inWon+$39.6947549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Pittsburgh Pirates52c76.92$40 inWon+$36.9216144.1%71 W · 90 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c70.31$39 inWon+$31.648660.5%52 W · 34 L+10.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Pittsburgh Pirates52c67.31$35 inWon+$32.3127846.8%130 W · 148 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c49$27 inWon+$22.055843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b08…351ebacked Milwaukee Brewers49c40.92$20 inLost-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c40.25$22 inWon+$18.1112855.5%71 W · 57 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c29$16 inWon+$13.0513545.2%61 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Milwaukee Brewers47c21.81$10 inLost-$10.2539653%210 W · 186 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.