MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x607dfa3116fb2fea0c1d94f6c94ac68bfbc23a8e42506ffaf4e694225e4025dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 15,963$10,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,266.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 15,467$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 2,200$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.56 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 1,892$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.12 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 1,820$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.43 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,615$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.21 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 788.46$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.56 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 681.82$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.64 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…0dfcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 436.11$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 420$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 328$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 300.76$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 288.09$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 219.07$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 212.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 210$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 208.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 208.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 206.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 156.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 123.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Milwaukee Brewers | 28c | 108$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 103.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 85.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 79.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 74.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 69.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 66.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 51.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…24efbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 29.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 22.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 22.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 17.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.